Hidden Blessing of Deflation

Asset prices and prices are falling rapidly as the impact of globalization credit permeates the global economy. Newspaper columnists are beginning to warn against the dangers of deflation.
What happens during deflation?
It’s important to understand that what happens during deflation is not a result of deflation itself. Rather, deflation itself and what happens during deflation are results of the same cause: a change in mass social mood.
Beyond the price effects of deflation, what happens during deflation can fill entire books. In his two-book set, Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction, Robert Prechter dedicated several sections to what happens during deflation. The topic of what happens during deflation also inspired Prechter’s best-seller Conquer the Crash.
The same mass psychology that initiates the change from inflation to deflation and depression also regulates what humans do, feel and produce during deflation. Here’s a short list of what happens during deflation:
- Investment strategy moves toward less-risky investments, like cash. Fashions move from risqué toward conservative.
- People seek the safety of groups and organizations; religion becomes more popular.
- People have less sex and therefore fewer babies.
- Formerly adored leaders and icons see their popularity reversed.
- Bull market sports see their popularity decline in favor of bear market sports.
- Company buyouts and mergers slow and sometimes stop altogether.
- Social conflicts like riots and wars break out.
- Incumbent political leaders in democratic countries are thrown out and replaced by their challengers.
- Political leaders in non-democratic countries are targets of coup attempts; entire government structures are overthrown.
- Legislators vote for stricter regulations.
- Shocking swindles like the Enron and Bernie Madoff scandals are uncovered.
Postponed expenditure
A concern is that consumers postpone spending when prices fall.
Deflation has other insidious traits. It causes buyers to remember. They expect lower prices. Once this psychology takes a handful, it may gradually put on a self-feeding spiral that is difficult to stop (Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Daily Telegraph).
It encourages people to postpone spending until prices drop. This in turn forces down the price – as retailers cut prices in a vain attempt to attract buyers. As retailers cut prices, the same manufacturers, who have less money to invest in new technologies, equipment and especially the staff.
Salaries begin in the fall, which is psychologically very damaging for consumers, even those who retain their jobs. As they fret less about money in their pockets and their employment prospects, they have more to defer expenses, from the deflationary spiral once again (Harry Wallop, Daily Telegraph)
These statements are nonsense. Falling prices do not stop consumer spending. Computer prices have declined over the last twenty years, but spending on computers has never ceased. While prices of most electronic devices have fallen dramatically over the past decade, sales have increased significantly. The reason is that when prices fall, more people can afford to buy, the sales increase.
The advantage of lower prices is that consumers can buy things when it suits them. During inflation, people rush into buying before you can afford it, because they are afraid that prices will rise. They often have debts, trying to beat rising prices. Inflation forces people to make purchases at the wrong time.
Falling prices eliminate this problem. People are not subjected to unnecessary pressure to buy. They can save for something they need to know that price increases will not grow beyond their reach. People are free to purchase large items, the time is right for them. Falling prices increase freedom.
The benefits of lower prices is that people have access to better quality (so the theory goes). While waiting a little longer, they can get a later model, the same price. This makes them better off.
Borrowers are Punished
Another concern of the columnists is that deflation punishes borrowers.
A prolonged period of deflation may have a pernicious impact on the economy. The other main reason for deflation can cause as many problems, it is used to make debt more expensive. Here’s why. If you borrow £ 1,000 at the beginning of the year to pay for a new sofa, the cost of the loan does not change throughout the year. It remains to be £ 1,000. But the couch is falling in price. Thus, at the end of the year – if you are still repaying the loan – you are finished take £ 1000 to pay for a sofa now worth £ 900 and £ 800. Think of it as negative on a large scale, spread across the consumer credit. Of course, in theory, there are winners: savers (Harry Wallop, Daily Telegraph).
The scourge of deflation is that it increases the burden of debt. Revenues fall: the debts remain the same. In this way, is … suffocation. The great credit bubble of the past 20 years has pushed debt levels in Britain, the United States and other Western societies, to unprecedented levels … Our sensitivity to debt deflation is greater (Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Daily Telegraph).
This is twisted thinking. The curse of the debt has been replaced by the curse of deflation. Evil is good. The lie is the truth. Reviewers hate deflation, because it rewards those who save and punishes those who borrow. The falling price of redistribution of wealth – the wrong direction. Enjoy savings, which is good for those who have saved. The income is transferred from those of the debt to those. Revenues are transferred from the borrower and the speculators who were responsible. In the strange world of debt and leverage that is considered bad.
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May 19, 2009
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